Fluminense set to Conca

Fluminense go into today's last round of matches knowing that a win at home to relegated Guarani will hand them their first national title since 1984. Should they succeed, it will be in no small part due to their attacking midfielder Dario Conca. The 27 year old Argentinian is also favourite to secure the Brazilian player of the year award later this week, the first non Brazilian to do so since Carlos Tevez in 2005.


Key to Fluminense's success, Conca.

Conca came through the youth ranks at River Plate but never established himself in the first team there. He was loaned out to a string of clubs across South America becoming something of a journeyman. Ironically, he caught the attention of Fluminense when he impressed during a loan spell at their Rio rivals Vasco da Gama. Flu signed him for the start of the 2008 season and was part of the team that reached the final of the Copa Libertadores that year. A classical playmaker who possesses the full range of skills, has flourished under Muricy Ramalho. He has weighed in with nine goals of his own during this year's Brazilian Championship as well as being the fulcrum of the team. Surprisingly he has never been called up by his country and perhaps never will be given the depth of talent that Argentina possess in his position. A belated move to Europe is perhaps a greater possibility.

Corinthians and Cruzeiro will be hoping to take advantage should Fluminense fail to win today. I have examined the scenarios below. This is the current league table. Where teams are tied on points, they are separated first on wins then goal difference then goals scored.

Rnk↓		Team	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA	+/-	Pts
1		Fluminense	37	19	11	7	61	36	25	68
2		Corinthians	37	19	10	8	64	40	24	67
3		Cruzeiro	37	19	9	9	51	37	14	66

For Fluminense to win the title

A win over relegated Guarani will hand the Rio club the title regardless of other results. A draw will be enough only if Corinthians and Cruzeiro both fail to win. Should Flu lose, then they would need Corinthians also to lose and Cruzeiro to fail to win.

For Corinthians to win the title

Fluminense must lose or draw for Corinthians to stand any chance of winning the league. A victory for Corinthians away to relegated Goiás would give them the title if Flu draw or lose. A draw would be enough  to hand Corinthians the title on goal difference or goals scored should Cruzeiro fail to win and Flu lose although in an unlikely situation Flu could still take the title if they scored at least three goals in defeat and lost by a margin of one.

For Cruzeiro to win the title

Cruzeiro must win at home to Palmeiras and hope that Fluminense and Corinthians both fail to win to stand any chance of the title. However, any combination of draws and defeats for the other two will give Cruzeiro the title so long as they win. For example, if Cruzeiro win and the other two draw, Cruzeiro and Fluminense would be level on 69 points but Cruzeiro would have more total victories which is the first tie breaker used in this competition. Cruzeiro's chances have been boosted by the fact that Palmeiras manager Luis Felipe Scolari has chosen a reserve team for what is a dead rubber for his midtable side.

Beneath the title chasers, Grêmio host Botafogo in Porto Alegre in a decider for fourth and the final Copa Libertadores place. Botafogo must win to steal the slot in South America's premier club competition in 2011 from the Gremistas.

At the bottom Vitória host Atlético Goiano in Salvador in a decider for the last relegation place. Vitória must win to avoid relegation and send Atlético Goiano into next year's Serie B. A draw would be enough to ensure Atlético's survival.

All matches begin at 5pm Brasilia time, 7pm GMT, 8pm CET, 2pm EST. I will blog later tonight on the outcome.